Unlocking India's demographic dividend

India is at a crucial moment in history. With over half the population under 25 years of age, it has potential to emerge as the world’s next superpower. The demographic dividend brings opportunity for huge pay-offs.

However, it also brings along potential disaster if lingering demands for quality education, jobs, infrastructure and overall development are not met. I believe millions of workers will be redirected to farms for work if the current economic slowdown compounds job creation problem in the industry and services sector.

Some estimates suggest that 12 million people will join the agriculture workforce by 2018-19 compared with a decline of 37 million in agriculture employment between 2004-05 and 2011-12. This should be accompanied with rural development projects.

As India grows below potential, those looking for non-farm work will also be left to contend with fewer jobs. Employment outside agriculture will increase by only 38 million between 2011-12 and 2018-19 compared with 52 million between 2004-05 and 2011-12.

While tottering GDP growth rate of about five per cent is partly to blame, the country’s inability to create labour-intensive manufacturing jobs that propelled growth in economies like China and southeast Asian countries could cost heavily in coming years.

The real estate sector – which employs a large bulk of construction labour – has already reported 18 to 20 per cent job losses over the past one year. Meanwhile, manufacturing added one to two million jobs a year since 1970s but has lost seven million jobs between 2005 and 2010. The services sector accounting for 60 per cent of GDP is unlikely to employ more than 20 to 30 per cent of the incoming labour. 

It may be trendy to talk about demographic dividend but India could well be staring at a massive demographic liability as 51 million people seek work with not enough jobs to absorb them.

Unemployment and underemployment statistics also show an ominous reality. If India's youth are not given opportunities for a meaningful future, they could become an economic burden rather than an asset.

A focus on manufacturing, skills development and acceleration of infrastructure creation are some of the solutions to arrest this crisis. But all these are dependent on a rigorous policy approach by those in the government and consist of tough decisions like undertaking dramatic labour reforms, easing the climate for doing business and quicker decision making.

And, of course, a harmonious mechanism for land distribution is must so that equitable growth can take place in agriculture, industry and services sector.

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Arrest of drug lords in Punjab an eye opener

by Arvind Khanna

It is heartening to learn about a series of successful operations against drug smugglers by the Punjab Police, particularly the arrest of drug lords like Bhola and earlier Raja Kandola. Some of the culprits have also been convicted. At the same time, it is an eye opener and matter of grave concern that such a huge quantity of drugs is being smuggled into the state.

It is not only about the drugs from outside, but more serious is the seizure of drugs that are being manufactured within the state. The obvious targets are our youth who are falling prey to this scourge. The reports are alarming. Various surveys have indicated that 70 per cent of our youth have tried one or other sort of drugs at one time or the other. And unfortunately, quite a number of youth have succumbed to the addiction – thus virtually ruining their lives.

Our future is at stake. The drugs are eating into the vitals of our society. The consequences are all too obvious. Our youth, otherwise known for being well-built, robust and energetic, are not able to get recruited into the army just for health reasons. Drug addiction is considered to be the main cause for this poor physical performance by aspiring recruits. Our burly and robust youth have turned feeble and fragile. An entire generation is being wasted.

Apart from physical health, drugs cause social and economic problems as well. The supply network of the drug smugglers is so strong that those who fall prey to the addiction do not find it difficult to procure the stuff. Hundreds of families have been ruined financially. Once it gets to be known that someone has turned into an addict he becomes a social outcaste, virtually losing purpose in life. It is a trauma not for the addict alone, but also for the entire family.

While the Punjab Police has done an exceptionally good job by breaking into the drug cartels and arresting many of the smugglers, a lot more needs to be done. There is a genuine apprehension in everybody’s mind that there might be many more people still active in this dirty trade and much more drug quantities might still be finding its way into Punjab. This campaign needs to be taken to its logical conclusion to save Punjab and its youth.

This is everybody’s responsibility and this job must not be left to only some social workers of India. It should be everybody’s campaign and for not just, say, the 10 top politicians of India whom would want to cleanse the system. I believe that awareness against drugs must be part of the community development programme in India. After all, it concerns human resource development which is our greatest capital.